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The State of Solar

What if electricity costs weren’t just rising — but speeding up?

That’s what the data shows. And while the reasons are complex, the trend is simple: in Massachusetts, electricity prices are climbing faster each year. It’s a shift that’s reshaping how we think about solar, energy planning, and the future of homes on Martha’s Vineyard and beyond.

The Trend: Acceleration, Not Just Inflation

For decades, electric rates in Massachusetts have risen at a predictable 4% a year. But recent averages tell a new story:

  • 12-year average: +7.7% annually
  • 5-year average: +10.0%
  • 3-year average: +17.2%

Each shorter-term trend climbs more steeply than the last. That’s not just inflation—it’s acceleration.

What’s Driving It?

Some causes are familiar:

  • Upgrades to aging grid infrastructure
  • Delays in transmission and capacity expansion
  • Global fuel market volatility

But newer pressures are amplifying the effect:

  • AI data centers are pulling massive power from already-shared grids
  • Electrification is surging—from EVs to heat pumps
  • Utilities are catching up on deferred investments, passing costs along to ratepayers

Demand is rising quickly. Supply is costly, complex, and slow to scale. These aren’t temporary glitches—they’re signs of a system in transition.

What It Means for Solar in 2025

Solar has always been a long-game investment. But as utility prices rise faster, its value shows up more immediately.

Federal Tax Credits: A Window That’s Closing

  • The 30% federal tax credit for residential solar and battery storage is only available for systems that are installed by the end of 2025. That means homeowners who want to benefit from the full credit need to complete their projects before that deadline.
  • For businesses and tax-exempt organizations, equivalent incentives remain in place through direct-pay grants or tax credits, which, depending on eligibility and project structure, can cover up to 30% of installation costs.

Massachusetts Programs

Our state continues to lead with meaningful support:

  • SMART – performance-based incentives for 10 years
  • Connected Solutions – payments for sharing battery power during peak demand
  • Net Metering – credits for excess energy sent back to the grid
  • HEAT Loans – 0% financing for home energy improvements

These help reduce upfront costs and make the long-term math even better—especially as rates climb.

Hardware Costs & Supply

  • Tariffs on Southeast Asian panels have pushed short-term costs up.
  • U.S. manufacturing of panels (like the QCells we use) is ramping up, but the supply chain is still finding its balance.

Not a Sales Pitch — A Signal

This isn’t a “hurry up and buy now” message. But it is a moment worth paying attention to.

If electricity rates keep climbing at this pace, energy choices that once felt optional—like rooftop solar or home batteries—may soon feel like common-sense infrastructure.

Looking Ahead

We monitor public data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to track long-term pricing trends. The 2024 numbers won’t be out until October 2025, but when they are, we’ll share what we learn—helping you stay one step ahead in the evolving world of electrification. Onward!

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